Anything over 53% will do, but there are known spread situations that will give the bettor a 60% or more probability of a win. Because the books don't actually control the long term probabilities, you can gain an edge by betting only games known to be taking place in a point spread situation that has shown an advantage over time. The bookies love it, but your bankroll can't handle that mistake too ma. Most of them have no idea what they are doing and end up losing.
The books do not control the probabilities like they do in other games, such as Blackjack or Craps. The fastest and easiest way to make money with point spreads in the NFL is to identify the advantageous spread situations and only place. Most sports gamblers bet on the NFL, and most of those who do use point spreads for betting.
To offset the lack of control, the books charge a vig and use point spreads in effort to balance the betting. To understand how to make money with spreads in the NFL, you need to know why you can win in the first place. The lack of knowledge causes some bets to be made with as little as a 40% probability of a winning outcome. _ |