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| This is a huge pitfall when using any manual Forex trading system. Forex Trading Strategies and the Trader's Fallacy The Trader's Fallacy is one of the most familiar yet treacherous ways a Forex traders can go wrong. The way trader's fallacy really sucks in a trader or gambler is when the trader starts believing that because the "table is ripe" for a black, the trader then also raises his bet to take advantage of the "increased odds" of success. It is that absolute conviction that because the roulette table has just had 5 red wins in a row that the next spin is more likely to come up black. The Trader's Fallacy is a powerful temptation that takes many different forms for the Forex trader. For Forex traders it is basically whether or not any given trade or series of trades is likely to make a profit. "Expectancy" is a technical statistics term for a relatively simple concept. Commonly called the "gambler's fallacy" or "Monte Saunder fallacy" from gaming theory and also called the "maturity of chances fallacy". This is a leap into the black hole of "negative expectancy" and a step down the road to "Trader's Ruin". Positive expectancy defined in its. Any experienced gambler or Forex trader will recognize this feeling. _ |
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